The Influence of History

One of the best uses of history is to gain perspective on the present. Today, there is much talk in naval circles about A2/AD environments and the antiship missile threat in a potential war with China. However, there is surprisingly little reference to the very similar threat the Soviet Navy posed not so long ago. This comparison is particularly apt as the maritime strategies of the USSR of 1988 and the PRC of 2018 have much in common. Both were primarily land powers that had developed a defensive navy with significant blue water reach. In 1988, the Soviet Navy fielded a force of 64 submarines, 85 surface ships, and roughly 365 bombers equipped with some 1798 antiship missiles. In comparison, the Chinese Navy of 2018 has 48 submarines, 112 surface ships, and roughly 180 bombers and fighters that carry around 1590 missiles. While both navies also fielded missile craft and shore launchers, platforms of this nature cannot seriously contesting sea control and will be excluded from this...

Because of the highly speculative nature of this post, I thought it better to upload it separately from the factual description of the events. Link to the original post on the 2016 Attacks. What Missiles Did the Houthis Use? As far as I have been able to determine, the only antiship missiles present in Yemen before the civil war were the twelve C-801 missiles on the three Type 021 missile boats and the SS-N-2 Styx missiles on the Tarantul I and Osa II  missile boats. However, the Styx missile uses a corrosive liquid fuel and cannot be kept in a ready state, while the C-801 uses a far simpler solid rocket. Given the chaos in Yemen, I find it difficult to believe that Styx could remain operational. Further, C-801 weighs only a quarter as much as Styx, making it far easier transport the missiles and devise a ground launch system. The other option is that the missiles were imported after the conflict began. However, antiship missiles are large and expensive items and not the k...

Surprising observers around the world, in October 2016, the waters off Yemen saw some of the most intense missile combat in naval history. Not only did these missile attacks highlight the extreme risk to any warship operating close to shore, they validated modern missile defense systems and demonstrated that front-line warships are capable of defending themselves from even sizeable salvos of antiship missile through a combination of hard-kill and soft-kill countermeasures. Yemen - the events described all occurred in the Red Sea off the west coast Background to the Attacks After years of steadily worsening political crises, in 2015 Yemen collapsed into full-blown civil war between government forces and the Houthi tribes of the west. Shortly after the fighting broke out in March, a Saudi-led coalition of Middle-Eastern and African nations intervened on the side of the government. This coalition was supported by the United States and made wide use of weapons (such as F-15 Eagle fi...